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International Investments



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International Investments - Chalk & Cheese Come Up With Same Investments

By Gary Scott

Jyske Bank, Keppler Asset Management and The Economist are three of my favorite sources of data partly because, like chalk and cheese, they have very different styles.

Last message, based on Jyske’s input, we saw that emerging markets are under pressure as current accounts come into focus. Currencies in countries with large current account deficits (such as the US) are weak. The emerging currencies that have depreciated most in 2006 are those of countries struggling with current-account deficits. According to Jyske Bank, the emerging countries with the best ability to create current account surpluses offer better opportunity now. The best countries based on current account possibilities according to Jyske are listed:

Singapore
Russia
The Philippines
Taiwan
Argentina
Brazil
South Korea
Chile
Ukraine
Indonesia

Commodity Rich Emerging Markets

One way I zero in on places to invest is by looking for areas where my sources agree. So I tried a cross check on Keppler Asset Management. Note this. The top ten investments in the State Street Global Advantage Emerging Markets Fund (which follows Keppler’s system) are all on Jyske’s list as well:

Investment Country
Lukoil Russia
Petróleo Brasileiro Brazil
Anglo American plc Commodity Rich
Samsung Electronics Co. South Korea
Philippine Long Distance Telephone The Philipines
Gold Fields Ltd. Commodity Rich
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. Commodity Rich
PTT Public Company Ltd. Commodity Rich (Thailand Gas)
iShares (Taiwan) Inc. Taiwan
Taiwan Semiconductor Manuf. Co. Ltd. Taiwan

Look at the top investments in the fund by country weighting. Again this fund is focused in exactly the countries mentioned by Jyske. Over half the funds invested are in these countries!

Country Percent of the Fund Invested
Korea 12.9%
Russia 12.4%
Philippines 11.5%
Brazil 11.3%
Malaysia 9.0%
Taiwan 8.6%

The State Street Global Advantage Fund invests primarily in emerging equities based on valuations by Keppler Asset Management. The fund’s goal is to outperform the Morgan Stanley Capital Index Emerging Markets Total Return Index over holding periods of 3 to 5 years, with below-average risk.

The Fund buys into a combination of undervalued markets (based on Keppler valuations) and aims to hold them till they become slightly overvalued.

Risk is controlled by focusing on expectation of loss and by investing in undervalued securities with a below-average probability of losing money in the long run.

There you have it. Two of my advisors with very different approaches. But their recommendations end up being very much the same. Take note!

You can get details about Keppler’s valuation system at info@kamny.com

US investors cannot invest in the Luxembourg registered State Street Global Advantage Emerging Markets Fund but they can get details on how to invest globally including in the shares and countries above from Thomas Fischer at Jyske Bank. His address is fischer@jyskebank.dk

Until next message, good natural health, global business and international investing to you!

Gary

Learn about investing in emerging and major currencies, gold, silver, Ecuador, import-export, overseas markets and more. Join Merri, Thomas Fischer (Copenhagen) and Steve Marchant (Ecuador) and me at our September 15-16-17, 2006 International Business and Investing Made EZ course in North Carolina. Review where to invest and do business now and learn which markets and currencies may be strong in the year ahead. Learn more about Ecuador import and export from Steve. Our May course was overbooked and the September session is filling up fast. Our free accommodations are reserved on a first come first served basis so do not delay! Go to http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ibeznc.

June, 2006

 

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