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International Investments



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International Investments - May Emerging Markets Report

By Gary Scott

After Bloody May, easily the second worst month for emerging markets this decade, I have anxiously been awaiting Michael Keppler’s monthly assessment. Michael continually researches many emerging stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each emerging stock market’s history and from this develops his Good Value Emerging Stock Market Strategy. His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short ups and downs.

Here are Keppler’s comments on recent developments & outlook.

“In May Emerging Markets equities suffered their worst monthly setback since September 2002, when they dropped 10.8 %.

“Last month, the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index dropped 10.5 % in US dollars and 12.2 % in euros. For the year the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up 7.4 % in US dollars. However, due to an 8.2 % decline in the value of the US dollar, it is down 1.4 % year to date, if performance is measured in euros.

“Of the three regional indices, Asia lost 7.7 %, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) declined 13.3 % and Latin America came in last with a monthly loss of 13.9 %.

“However year to date, all regions are still recording positive returns: Asia leads with an 8.1 % gain, Latin America is up 7.5 % and EMEA stands 5.9 % higher compared with its end-of-December 2005 level. All performance numbers are in US dollars unless mentioned otherwise.

“Twenty-four markets declined and three markets advanced last month. The worst three performers were Turkey (-27.9 %), Colombia (-19.3 %) and Argentina (-18 %).

“An additional twelve markets suffered double-digit losses.

“The three rising markets, on the other hand, eked out only tiny gains. Those were Sri Lanka (+0.6 %), Jordan (+0.4 %) and the Philippines (+0.2 %). Compared with their levels at the beginning of the year, twenty-one markets were higher and six markets were lower.

“The biggest winners this year have been Venezuela (+48 %), Morocco (+41 %) and Russia (+29 %). Turkey (-19 %), Egypt (-11.6 %) and Jordan (-11.2 %) performed worst so far this year.

“The Top Value Model Portfolio based on the Top Value Strategy lost 9.4 % in dollars and 11.2 % in euros last month. Since the beginning of the year, the Top Value Model Portfolio has gained 9 % in US dollars and 0.1 % in euros, outperforming the benchmark by 1.6 and 1.5 percentage points.

“Despite the drop, there is no change in performance ratings this month. The Top Value Model Portfolio contains the nine "Buy"-rated markets of Brazil, China, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Russia, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey at equal weights. According to his performance ratings, these markets offer the highest expectation of risk-adjusted returns.”

You can get ideas on shares in these top value emerging stock markets from Thomas Fischer at Fischer@jyskebank.dk

For more details on Keppler's analysis, contact Roderick Cameron at 1-212-245-4304 or at roderick.cameron@kamny.com

Until next message good natural health, wealth and international investments!

Gary

June, 2006

 

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All contact copyright Gary A. Scott (1968-2006) unless noted otherwise