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International stock markets and stock market trends

International Investments Major Stock Market Value Update January 2005

By Gary Scott

International stock markets and stock market trends

Spotting Trends expert Michael Keppler continually researches every major global stock market and compares their values based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. Here is his most recent review:

Major Markets equities followed a strong year on a strong note. This month’s Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Index climbed 2.2 % in local currencies, US dollars and in euros.

In 2005 the benchmark for global equity investors gained 15.8 % in local currencies, 9.5 % in US dollars and 26.2 % in euros.

This last month in local currencies seventeen markets had positive returns and the US market was unchanged.

Japan turned in the best monthly performance with a 7.1 % gain, followed by Denmark (+6.6 %) and Sweden (+5.3 %). The poorest performers were the US, (unchanged), Hong Kong (+0.9 %) and Spain (+1.6 %).

For the third year in sequence, all eighteen markets followed had positive returns in 2005. From that point of view the recovery in the
equity markets of the developed world, which began in Spring 2003, has been very broadly based.

The three best performing markets of the last year were Japan (+44.6 %), Denmark (+43.9 %) and Austria (+43.6 %). The US (+5.1 %), Hong Kong (+8.1 %) and Singapore (+16.5 %) were the "underperformers".

Global diversification remains the name of the game for equity investors.  For the year, Keppler’s Top Value Model Portfolio gained 31.3 % in local currencies, 14.7 % in US dollars and 32.1 % in euros, outperforming the MSCI World Index by an enormous 15.5% percentage points in local currencies. However, due to the appreciating US dollar, the value added was "only" 5.2 percentage points if performance is measured in US dollars and 5.9 percentage points in euros.

Keppler made two changes in performance ratings this month.

Singapore is upgraded from "Neutral" to "Buy" and Denmark is downgraded from "Buy" to "Neutral". During the two years and eleven months when Denmark was rated "Buy" it had an annualized total return of 33.4 % as compared to a total annual return for the MSCI World Index of 19.2 %.

After adding Singapore and eliminating Denmark, the Top Value Model Portfoliocontains Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Singapore at equal weights.

Keppler’s current ratings suggest that these markets offer the highest expectation of risk adjusted performance.

Keppler's worst value markets (sell rating) remain the same with Austria, Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, Switzerland and the US.

Neutrally rated markets include Australia, Norway, Denmark, Spain, Sweden and the UK.

You can get ideas on shares in these top value major global stock markets from Thomas Fischer at

For more details on Keppler's analysis, contact Michael Keppler at 1-212-245-4304.

Until next message, good global investing!


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International stock markets and stock market trends
November 21, 2005
International stock markets and stock market trends



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