SPOTTING TRENDS
INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT, CURRENCIES AND REAL ESTATE

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International Investments



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International stock markets and stock market trends

International Investments March 2006 Emerging Markets Update

By Gary Scott

International stock markets and stock market trends

This morning Merri, our hound dog Ma and I strolled five minutes in the warm morning sun to the market and bought vegetables and fruit. Here it is: A huge hand of banana, three large red papaya, three bags of blackberries, eight ripe tomatoes, three bags of fresh green beans, two heads of crisp lettuce, a huge batch of greens, plus a bit more. All organic and just picked, garden fresh. The cost? Seven dollars and change. What value!

I hope you'll join us here at El Meson for our upcoming  Import-Export course and share this view. This is the last course that Merri and I will have here until next fall.

We will focus on how to buy and export items of extraordinary value!

Good value is one reason we love Ecuador. One way to also spot international investment trends is to look for value.

This is why statistical expert Michael Keppler continuallyy researches all emerging stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each emerging stock markets history and from this develops his good value emerging stock markets strategy.

Here is his recent review of emerging market developments & his outlook.

After the strong gains the month before, Emerging Markets equities went more or less sideways this last month.

The MSCI Emerging Markets World Total Return Index edged down 0.1 % in US dollars, but gained 1.7 % in euros.

Year-to-date, the global emerging markets benchmark is up 11 % in US dollars and 9.9 % in euros. During the last fourteen months, the MSCI EM Index gained 48.8 % in US dollars and 69.6 % in euros.

Of the three regional indices, Latin America performed best in February (+0.9 %), followed by Asia (-0.2 %) and Europe, Middle East and Africa (-0.7 %). Over the last fourteen months, Latin America led the race with a gain of 77.6 %, EMEA came in at 56.1 % and Asia at 36.3 %. Performance numbers are in US dollars unless mentioned otherwise.

Sixteen markets out of the 27-market MSCI Emerging Markets universe rose last month and eleven declined in US dollars.

Venezuela (+18.3 %), Pakistan (+15.4 %) and Morocco (+6.4 %) recorded the best performances.

Jordan (-11.3 %), Egypt (-9.8 %) and South Africa (-5.6 %) had the lowest monthly returns.

Over the previous fourteen months all but one of the twenty-seven markets covered here rose.

As was the case one year ago, four markets reaped triple-digit returns. The best performing countries were Egypt (+198.5 %), Colombia (+141.7 %) and Russia (+120.1 %). The only losing market over the past fourteen months was Venezuela, which declined 3.5 %, while the other worst performers Malaysia and Taiwan came in with single digit gains of +9.1 % and +9.0 %, respectively.

Portfolios invested according to the Top Value Strategy fared even better than the benchmark. Year to date, the Top Value Strategy gained 13.5 % in US dollars and 12.3 % in euros. Over the last fourteen months, the Top Value Strategy gained 64 % in US dollars and 87 % in euros, outperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by 15.2 and 17.4 percentage points respectively.

There is one change in Keppler's performance ratings this month:
Argentina is upgraded from “Sell” to “Neutral”. However, this rating change does not affect the composition of the Top Value Strategy, which, at the end of last month contains the following eight national MSCI Emerging Markets: Brazil, China, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Russia, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey at equal weights.

According to Keppler’s performance ratings, these markets offer the highest expectation of risk-adjusted returns.

Keppler also feels that Emerging Markets equities in general and those included in the Top Value Strategy in particular do not seem to be overpriced compared with their history. Keppler’svaluation work suggests that these markets are far from dangerous territory and chances are good for a continuation of decent returns over the next three to five years.

You can get ideas on shares in these top value major global stock markets from Thomas Fischer at FISCHER@jyskebank.dk

For more details on Keppler's analysis, contact Roderick Cameron at 1-212-245-4304 or at roderick.cameron@kamny.com

Until next message good international investments to you!

Gary

P.S. Join Merri, Thomas Fischer of Jyske Bank and me at our next International Business and Investing Made EZ course in North Carolina. Review where to invest and do business now and learn which markets and currencies may be strong in the year ahead. DETAILS

P.P.S. Double your profit potential with the MultiCurrency Sandwich. Details on my Borrow Low - Deposit High service

International stock markets and stock market trends
March, 2006
International stock markets and stock market trends

 

 

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