SPOTTING TRENDS
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International stock markets and stock market trends

International Investments March April 2006 Emerging Market Update

By Gary Scott

International stock markets and stock market trends

There is comfort in belonging. Being part of something bigger than ourselves can be colorful and exciting as well. This photo taken at a recent Cotacachi Ecuador parade shows the pageantry in belonging.

In fact belonging is so attractive to living things that most form groups or herds. This phenomenon means that most markets are usually wrong! The desire to belong clumps investors, buyers and sellers into narrow minded mindsets that push and pull prices beyond their correct realm.

This is why spotting trends through value is so important as you can see below.

Our friend statistical expert, Michael Keppler, continually researches many emerging stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each emerging stock market's history and from this develops his Good Value Emerging Stock Market Strategy.

Here is the recent review of Keppler's emerging market developments & his outlook.

After recording their strongest monthly gains in five years last January, Emerging Markets equities are consolidating at around their all-time highs. This last month, the MSCI Emerging Markets World Total Return Index advanced 0.9 % in US dollars, but declined by 0.6 % in euros.

During the first quarter, the emerging markets benchmark gained 12 % in US dollars and 9.2 % in euros. During the last fifteen months, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 50.1 % in US dollars and 68.6 % in Euros.

Of the three regional indices, Asia led with a monthly gain of 1.9 % this month, followed by Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), which advanced 1.5 %. Latin America was down 2.3 %.

During the first quarter, Latin America still stands out with a 15.6 % gain, versus EMEA (+14.4 %) and Asia (+9.5 %).

Over the last fifteen months Latin America leads (+73.4 %), followed by EMEA (+58.3 %) and Asia (+38.9 %).

Performance numbers are in US dollars unless mentioned otherwise.

Last month fifteen emerging markets we track advanced and twelve declined. Three markets shone with double-digit monthly returns: Venezuela (+18.1 %), Indonesia (+10.7 %) and India (+10 %).

Turkey (-12.2 %), Egypt (-5 %) and Brazil and Jordan (both down 4.7 %) performed worst.

Year-to-date, twenty-five markets are higher and only two markets are down. Venezuela (+50.2 %), Morocco (+39.2 %) and Russia (+28.3 %) performed best.

Jordan (-14.6 %), Israel (-3.4 %) and Taiwan (+2.6 %) came in last.

There is no change in Keppler's performance ratings this month. The Top Value Model Portfolio contains the nine "Buy"-rated markets of Brazil, China, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Russia, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey at equal weights. According to his performance ratings, these markets offer the highest expectation of risk-adjusted returns.

You can get ideas on shares in these top value emerging stock markets from Thomas Fischer at Fischer@jyskebank.dk

For more details on Keppler's analysis, contact Roderick Cameron at 1-212-245-4304 or at roderick.cameron@kamny.com

Until next message, good global investing!

Gary

P.S. Join Merri, Thomas Fischer of Jyske Bank and me at our next International Business and Investing Made EZ course in North Carolina, May 26, 27, 28. A Review where to invest and do business now and learn which markets and currencies may be strong in the year ahead. Do not delay we have only five spaces left! DETAILS

P.P.S. Double your profit potential with the MultiCurrency Sandwich. Leverage investments in top value markets. DETAILS

Today's Health Tip: Today's health tip. Eat dandelions. John Douillard's excellent book, Three Season Diet, points out that we should have three diets we vary through the year, low calorie-low fat in spring, high carbohydrate in summer and high protein in winter. This creates a food supply that fits the body's requirements as it shifts to adapt to each of these seasons.

The spring diet should include lots of leafy green, bitter vegetables and nature provides many during this time of the year. Dandelions are one of the best.

Here is the recipe for Dandelion-Quinoa biscuits we serve in El Meson at the Quinoa Cafe

1/2 cup coconut oil
1/2 cup panela, (dried sugar cane juice-or crude brown sugar)
2 eggs
1 tsp. vanilla extract,
1/2 cup flour, 1/2 cup ground quinoa
1 cup dry oatmeal, and 1/2 cup dandelion leafs or other bitter leafy greens.

1) Preheat the oven to 375.

2) Mix the oil and panela and then beat in the 2 eggs and vanilla.

3) Stir in the flour, oatmeal, and greens.

4) Drop the batter by tablespoonfuls onto an oiled cookie sheet.

5) Bake for 10-15 minutes.

International stock markets and stock market trends
April, 2006
International stock markets and stock market trends

 

 

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All contact copyright Gary A. Scott (1968-2006) unless noted otherwise