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International Investments



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International Investments - July 2006 Emerging Market Value Analysis

By Gary Scott

* International Investments – July 2006 Emerging Market Value Analysis

* Natural Health Tip - More Cool DeBuggin

* Ecuador Real Estate and Latin America

Our friend, Michael Keppler, continually researches many emerging stock markets and compares their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each emerging stock market’s history and from this develops his Good Value Emerging Stock Market Strategy. His analysis is rational, mathematical and does not worry about short ups and downs.

Here are Keppler’s current comments on recent developments & outlook in emerging markets.

“After their first double-digit monthly decline since September 2002 last month, Emerging Markets continued their decline during the first half of last month only to recover during the second half to close the month at around their end-of-May levels. In June, the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index lost 0.2 % in US dollars and rose by the same amount in euros.

“Since the beginning of the year, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up 7.2 % in US dollars, but due to a 7.8 % decline of the dollar versus the euro, the Emerging Markets benchmark lost 1.1 % in euros year-to-date.

“Of the three regional indices, Latin America stood out with a 4.2 % monthly gain, while Asia lost 0.8 % and Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) declined 2.3 %.Year-to-date, Latin America leads with a 12 % gain, followed by Asia (+7.3 %) and EMEA (+3.4 %). All performance numbers are in US dollars unless mentioned otherwise.

“Eleven markets included in the MSCI Emerging Markets universe rose last month, fourteen markets declined and two markets were unchanged.

“The best performing markets of the month were Peru (+9.7 %), Argentina (+7.1 %) and the Czech Republic (+5 %).

Jordan (-13.9 %), Colombia (-13 %) and Egypt (-9.9 %) lost most.

“Compared to their levels at the beginning of the year, twenty-one markets were higher and six markets were lower.

“The biggest winners this year have been Venezuela (+51.3 %), Morocco (+43.9 %), and Argentina (+34.2 %).

Turkey (-24.9 %), Jordan (-23.5 %) and Egypt (-20.4 %) performed worst so far this year.

“There are two changes in our performance ratings this month: Peru is downgraded to “Sell” from “Neutral” and Russia is downgraded to “Neutral” from “Buy”. Russia has been a constituent of the Top Value Model Portfolio since the end of January 2003. Since then to the end of June 2006, the MSCI Russia Index went from 170 to 758, an increase of 54.9 % compounded annually. Thus Russia beat the MSCI Emerging Market Index, which rose by 35.5 % p.a. during the same time, by 19.4 percentage points annually.

“After eliminating Russia, the Top Value Model Portfolio contains the eight national MSCI markets of Brazil, China , Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey at equal weights. According to our performance ratings, these markets offer the highest expectation of risk-adjusted returns.”

You can get ideas on shares in these top value emerging stock markets from Thomas Fischer at Fischer@jyskebank.dk

For more details on Keppler's analysis, contact Roderick Cameron at 1-212-245-4304 or email roderick.cameron@kamny.com

Join Merri, Thomas Fischer of Jyske Bank and me at our next International Business and Investing Made EZ course in North Carolina. Review where to invest and do business now and learn which markets and currencies may be strong in the year ahead. Meet Steve Marchant our man in Ecuador and learn about products to export. Go to http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ibeznc.html

Double your profit potential with the MultiCurrency Sandwich. Leverage investments in top value markets. See http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/bldh.html

Until next message, good investing!

Gary

There is plenty of energy in emerging markets. These two ladies walking in Cotacachi exude it!


List of articles on this website

July, 2006

 

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