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International Investments



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International stock markets and stock market trends

Global Major Market Portfolio

International stock markets and stock market trends

By
Gary Scott

Yesterday's message look at Michael Keppler's October 2005 Major Market value analysis. For the past 15 years or so we have reviewed Keppler’s major and emerging market valuations. There are a number of reasons why. First, few others single out Keppler’s value orientation. His solid mathematical analysis is not sexy, fashionable or exciting.  

Most investment advisors are in reality just sales people (my guess is about 80% of them) and they need a buzz to sell, whether it be the dot coms (from the bull of the late 90s), the private defense firms (from 911), the oil deals (from $3 plus gas) or whatever.  Just stressing good value isn't’t so glamorous, could even seem dull and if used long enough could even seem boring.  Heaven forbid.

This is not the sales people's fault. Investors (my guess is about 80% of them) get what they want and financial stability and profits are not their first goals.

I watched this phenomenon when Keppler began to suggest that the US equity market was overvalued (as it remains to this day) during the dot com bubble. 80% of my readers did not want to read this.

What do investors seek? Regrettably entertainment.  Exhilaration and hope for a big, quick hit is what they want! Investors create a demand for excitement. The sales people just provide the supply.

Don’t believe me? Look at the fastest growing city in the US. Las Legas.

Look at how the traditional press has grown increasingly sensational.  Louder, bigger, more death, more violence, more anger, more fear, more sex, more excitement sells more papers to more (I guess about 80%) of the population.

Why do I think 80%? Because about 80% of America’s wealth is controlled by about 20% of the people. This is the second reason we follow Keppler. His system builds and keeps solid wealth.

Third, fortunately, Merri and I do not sell investments and we have always been and remain in the business for the long term. We try not to get caught up in fashion, fads or sexy exciting sounding investment trends.

Recently a client called who has been reading what we write for over twenty years. This happens often because we continue looking at systems that work year in, year out and Michael Keppler’s analysis does work. The analysis may seem dull, slow moving and even boring. Sometimes his good value markets do not change for months! But his analysis works. This is for sure.

Yesterday we looked at Keppler’s Major Market October update. This message looks at a mutual fund that has been investing for over a decade following Keppler’s analysis.   

This fund is called the State Street Global Advantage Major Markets Fund and it is listed in Austria, Germany and Luxembourg.  At the end of September 2005 this fund, based on its performance average and volatility, had a five star rating (THE HIGHEST) by Standard & Poor's.

Standard & Poor's Rankings below show how well and steadily this fund has performed for the last ten years. Every year, except one, it has been in the top ten percent performance wise (one year it is in the top 12%). 

You can see the S & P ratings below:

YTD 2 yrs 3 yrs 5 yrs 7 yrs 9 yrs 10 yrs
Rank 39 of 486 12 of 471 33 of 447 10 of 314 4 of 178 11 of 95
Rank Top 9% Top 3% Top 8% Top 4% Top 3% Top 12%

Because the fund is not registered in the US, American investors cannot easily buy it, but we can analysis where the fund is invested and this can help us decide how to direct our global portfolios.

Here are the top ten shares the fund holds.

Top Ten investments as of 09/30/2005

Name Country Sector Weight
Berkshire Hathaways Inc USA Conglomerate 9.49%
Fortis Belgium Insurance-Financial 4.19%
Royal Dutch Shell Netherlands Oil 2.94%
ENI Italy Gas and Power 2.80%
Unilever NV  Netherlands Food-Home Care 2.50%
ING GROEP NV Netherlands Insurance-Financial 2.34%
Total France Oil 2.28%
KBC GROUP NV  Belgium Insurance-Financial 2.17%
BCA INTESA Italy Financial 2.12%
A.P. MOLLER – MAERSK Denmark Shipping 2.09%

Top Geographic Allocations as of 09/30/2005

Country Portfolio %
France 12.30%
Germany 12.30%
Netherlands 12.20%
Italy 12.10%
Denmark 12.00%
Belgium 11.90%
United States 10.40%

Top Sector Allocations as of 09/30/2005

Sector Portfolio %
Financials 38.88%
Energy 11.27%
Industrials 8.85%
Telecommunication 7.77%
Health Care 7.32%
Materials 6.41%
Consumer Discretionary 6.15%
Consumer Staples 5.67%
Utilities 5.64%
Information Technology 2.06%

You can get ideas on how to buy the shares in this top value major global stock markets from Thomas Fischer at FISCHER@jyskebank.dk

For more details on Keppler's analysis, contact Michael Keppler at 1-212-245-4304.

Until next message, good global investing!

Gary 

International stock markets and stock market trends

 

International stock markets and stock market trends

 

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