Spotting Trends expert Michael Keppler continually researches every
major global stock market and compares their values based on current
book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend
yield, return on equity and cash flow return. Here is his most recent
Recent Developments & Outlook
Last month, after five consecutive winning months, world equity
markets suffered their first monthly loss since April. The Morgan
Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Total Return Index (with
net dividends reinvested) declined 1.9 % in local currencies, 2.4 % in
US dollars and 1.8 % in euros.
Year-to-date, the MSCI World Index gained 8.7 % in local currencies,
3.7 % in US dollars and 17.6 % in euros.
Only two markets rose over the last month. Sixteen markets declined in
their local currency.
The two rising markets were Switzerland (+1.6 %) followed by Japan
(+1.5 %). The falling markets were
Netherlands (-1.5 %). Norway (-8 %), Hong Kong (-6.6 %) and Italy
(-6.2 %) came in last.
Year-to-date, all eighteen markets covered advanced; there were no
declining markets. Austria (+31.7 %), Denmark (+30.1 %) and Norway
(+29 %) performed best; the United States (+1.1 %), Hong Kong (+4.2 %)
and Italy (+8.1 %) came in at the bottom of the range.
As the US dollar has been rising all these markets performed less in
US dollar terms.
There is no change in Keppler’s performance ratings this month.
Keppler's Top Value Model Portfolio contains only markets rated "Buy",
in terms of good value.
These markets currently include Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany,
Italy and the Netherlands at equal weights.
The Top Value Model Portfolio based on investing only in buy rated
markets fell -3.5 % in US dollars and -2.9 % in euro.
Year-to-date, the Top Value Model Portfolio has gained 6.5 % in US
dollars and 20.9 % in euros.
Keppler’s current ratings suggest that these markets offer the highest
expectation of risk-adjusted performance.
Keppler's worst value markets (sell rating) remain the same with
Austria, Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, Switzerland and the US.
Neutrally rated markets include Australia, Norway, Singapore, Spain,
Sweden and the UK.
You can get ideas on shares in these top value major global stock
markets from Thomas Fischer at FISCHER@jyskebank.dk
For more details on Keppler's analysis, contact Michael Keppler at
Until next message, good global investing!